World Bank calculates economic impact of avian influenza
In a speech at the First International Conference on Avian Influenza
in Humans, Milan Brahmbhatt of the Wold Bank provided an analysis of potential
economic and social impacts from the bird flu
Brahmbhatt outlined a range of potential impacts, such as actual product
losses, decreased consumer demand, loss of labour from ill workers, loss of
tourism in affected countries, and the cost of providing disease prevention and
When taking all relevant factors into account,
the World Bank has forecast a potential total loss of 3.1 percent of world GDP
in the case of a "severe" AI pandemic scenario.
All told, given a
world GDP of around $40 trillion, the World Bank and other supporting studies
suggest that global economic losses in a "severe" AI scenario could be in the
range of $1.25-2 trillion.
For more information, including more
details on the World Bank definition of the "severe" scenario, see the full Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza Propagation speech.
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