The FAO has released its biannual Food Outlook, which reports that poultry meat production in 2012 is forecast to increase by 1.8% from 2011 estimates to 103.5 million tonnes. Poultry meat trade is to increase by 31% to 13 million tonnes.
The organisation forecasts that global output in 2012 will be 2%, and that most of this growth will be due to efforts of Asia in general, and China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Turkey in particular.
The FAO states that the limit on production growth in 2012 is down to three factors: the current high price of feed, the revival of avian influenza in Asia and ongoing trade disputes. Incidence of avian influenza has escalated of late in Asia with outbreaks in Bhutan, Nepal, India and Bangladesh.
The resurgence of avian flu is also making itself felt in terms of trade bans, and policy uncertainties continue to dominate poultry trade. The EU lifted in April an eight-year ban on fresh chicken meat from Thailand, as did Japan on US poultry from North Carolina. Japan concurrently has imposed an import ban on Australian poultry following reports of LPAI on a duck farm in Victoria. Kuwait has installed similar ban on poultry, eggs and chicks from Australian, as well as banning the same from Sri Lanka. Oman has banned poultry imports from India for similar, avian flu bio-security considerations. In January, Saudi Arabia lifted its import ban on poultry from Turkey, a ban in place since the 2005 bird flu epidemic.
The Russian Federation imposed import quotas in December on beef, pork and poultry, and revoked an import ban on poultry from the Ukraine in February. South Africa imposed provisional anti-dumping tariffs on Brazilian chicken in March.
Brazil and the Russian Federation production outputs are expected to grow by 3% and 6% respectively, amounting to 3 million tonnes and for Russia and 12 million tonnes for Brazil. Production in African countries (Namibia, Ghana, Angola, Benin and Congo ) is being hindered by rising imports and high feed prices. The exception is South Africa, whose import tariffs will help domestic output.
The expansion in world poultry trade is expected to take the form of increased delivery to Vietnam, Hong Kong, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Increasing domestic demand is expected to fuel impors to Egypt, Angola, Benin and Ghana.