World Bank calculates economic impact of avian influenza

29-06-2006 | |
World Bank calculates economic impact of avian influenza

In a speech at the First International Conference on Avian Influenza in Humans, Milan Brahmbhatt of the Wold Bank provided an analysis of potential economic and social impacts from the bird flu virus.

Brahmbhatt outlined a range of potential impacts, such as actual product losses, decreased consumer demand, loss of labour from ill workers, loss of tourism in affected countries, and the cost of providing disease prevention and control incentives.

When taking all relevant factors into account, the World Bank has forecast a potential total loss of 3.1 percent of world GDP in the case of a “severe” AI pandemic scenario.

All told, given a world GDP of around $40 trillion, the World Bank and other supporting studies suggest that global economic losses in a “severe” AI scenario could be in the range of $1.25-2 trillion.

For more information, including more details on the World Bank definition of the “severe” scenario, see the full Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza Propagation speech.