US egg crisis unlocks new opportunities for Turkey

During the first 2 months of 2025, Turkey exported around 1.6 million packs of eggs to the US, official statistical data indicated. Exports are expected to continue until July. Photo: Bram Becks

Egg exports from Turkey have played an interesting role in easing tensions in the US egg market in recent months. The country increased its exports compared with the previous year to dampen ‘eggflation’ in the US. However, fears of domestic market stability and the most recent Trump tariffs promise to put breaks on further growth in overseas deliveries.

Under the original plan, Turkey committed to delivering around 22,000 tonnes of eggs to the US, equivalent to 1,000 containers in exports designed to last until July, İbrahim Afyon, chairman of the Turkish Egg Producers Central Union (YUM-BİR), said. The deal was expected to be fulfilled by a handful of authorised companies and generate US$37 million in additional revenue for Turkey’s egg industry.

As estimated by local egg producers, the deal was seen as an opportunity to make up for the loss of some export markets over recent months. Several countries, including Iran and Russia, imposed restrictions on egg imports from Turkey following an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza registered at a farm in the Meram district of Konya in November 2024. The outbreak dealt a heavy blow to Turkey’s egg exports to the Middle East, which plunged to 20-25 containers per week, compared with 75-80 containers before the outbreak.

Turkey’s egg production has been on a steady upward trajectory in recent years, driven by strong exports and rising domestic consumption. In 2024, egg production in the country reached 21.1 billion, climbing by nearly 500 million eggs from the previous year’s level. During the first 2 months of 2025, Turkey exported around 1.6 million packs of eggs to the US, official statistical data indicated. In the previous year, Turkey’s egg export to the US was zero. However, in 2024, sales to foreign customers plunged by 21% compared with the previous year to US$184 million.

If Turkey plays its cards right, it could ensure that exports will last at least until the end of the year, generating an additional US$50 million in export revenues in 2025, Afyon estimated. This would push foreign sales closer to the record of US$240 million achieved in 2022. According to YUM-BİR, the industry’s self-sufficiency level ranges between 115% and 120%. Despite the growth in egg exports, Turkey has been steadily losing its position in the global ranking in recent years. In 2020, the country was the world’s second-largest egg exporter. Last year, it was ranked fourth, and in 2025, it is expected to inch down to fifth.

Fears of domestic shortage

At the time the deal was signed, YUM-BİR executives promised that rising exports to the US would not affect domestic supply and prices. However, Turkey’s population was not entirely convinced. High-profile news about the egg shortage in the US and Europe sparked fierce debates in social media and among politicians about whether the country can afford to export large quantities of eggs. The price dynamics show that the fears were not entirely groundless. During the last 4 months, the average retail price of eggs in Turkey jumped by 70%, with the expectation of a surge in exports to the US contributing to that trend. A 30-egg pack now costs up to TRY 230 (US$6.05), a level hardly affordable for the poorest of the population.

To address the fears, Turkey’s President Recep Erdoğan imposed an export duty of US$0.50 per kg of table eggs. “Extreme price fluctuations experienced in international markets are reflected in domestic prices and negatively affect consumer welfare,” the authorities said in an explanatory note to the degree, emphasising that the top priority was to keep egg prices at bay during the month of Ramadan. “Egg prices are driven by [market] expectations,” Afyon said, explaining the rationale behind imposing the additional duty. “We have no problems with our production; it keeps rising.”

Monthly egg production dipped during the last months of 2024 due to avian influenza outbreaks, but at the beginning of 2025, production bounced back, he stated. The Trade Ministry is authorised to keep a close eye on egg prices “to protect food supply and safety, facilitate our people’s access to food at reasonable prices, and prevent speculation in food markets”, the decree stipulated. However, local egg producers oppose the introduction of additional duty, as revealed by Webagron, a local news outlet, citing unnamed manufacturers. Constraining exports is described as inconsistent, as some production capacities in Turkey’s egg industry are idle. According to YUM-BİR, the already established capacities are sufficient to push the self-sufficiency level to 135%, which would correspond to annual production of around 24.5 billion eggs. Nevertheless, the general consensus in the industry was that the additional duty would not derail the growth in exports.

Trump tariffs

Although Turkey has swiftly become a major player in the US egg market, it may find it difficult to maintain its position, some analysts believe. In a historic decision, US President Trump imposed varying levels of import taxes on countries around the world, levying a 10% tariff on Turkey – the lowest level imposed. The import tax will certainly take a toll on exports, making Turkey’s eggs less competitive and fuelling the growth of wholesale prices.

“Imported eggs already come with high transportation and logistics costs. Now, when customs tariffs are added, the competitiveness of suppliers such as Turkey will decrease,” said Brian Moscogiuri, global trade strategist at Eggs Unlimited, a company operating in the egg supply chain.

On the flip side, other prominent egg exporters are also subject to additional duties. Brazil faced the same 10% tariff on all exports, while Korea was slapped with a 26% duty. So far, Turkey’s industry officials refrain from comments on how the new duty will impact emerging egg exports to the US.