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Rabobank: Covid-19 and ASF to shake-up world poultry markets

The fast-moving coronavirus pandemic will add significant uncertainty to global poultry markets, according to latest analyst by Dutch firm Rabobank. The outlook for the rest of the year will be affected by the virus and the ongoing African Swine Fever (ASF) challenges in the pork industry will also bring additional complexity.

In its quarter 2 analysis, Rabobank said it expected to see a further drop in pork production in Asia this year, which could lead to potential growth in local poultry production and international trade, if rising supply chain challenges could be managed. As coronavirus is now expected to cause a global economic slowdown, poultry demand could benefit among the proteins, due to its price competitiveness.

Rabobanks specialist Nan Dirk Mulder sees growth in at-home poultry consumption. Photo Herbert Wiggerman
Rabobanks specialist Nan Dirk Mulder sees growth in at-home poultry consumption. Photo Herbert Wiggerman

Nan Dirk Mulder, Rabobank animal protein senior global specialist, said he expected to see more at-home poultry consumption and higher sales of non-perishable poultry products: “Labour availability and logistics issues, such as those impacting distribution, will likely affect supply in the coming months. “Coronavirus will also affect the global supply of poultry inputs (like feed additives and animal health products), due to disruption at Chinese and other suppliers.” The changing economic and market conditions brought by the coronavirus pandemic will have significant impacts on global trade, which will become more volatile, with both destinations and origins affected, as well as pricing. Total volumes are likely to be affected temporarily, and trade should ultimately benefit from local supply issues related to coronavirus, ASF and avian influenza.

The largest coronavirus-related issues will be potential shocks in supply and demand driven by quarantine and logistics and temporary changes in consumer demand towards at-home consumption and non-perishable products. As this could impact supply and demand, it has the potential to also impact global poultry markets and pricing.

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