Belarus restricts poultry export over suspected bird flu outbreak

Two sources said several Belarussian poultry farms had recently been hit with a bird flu outbreak. Their scale and location remain unknown since the Belarussian authorities do not disclose official information. Still, the source believed that the outbreaks could have dragged down broiler meat production in the country.

In turn, the Belarussian Association of meat processors issued a statement that justified the restrictions with an anticipated rise in demand during the II Games of the CIS countries, a series of regional sports events to be held in 11 Belarussian cities in August. The inflow of athletes from several neighbouring countries and their supporters could cause a temporary hike in demand.

A purely economic rationale behind the restrictions could not be completely ruled out. Albina Koryagina, a partner with the think tank NEO Centre, recalled that last autumn, the Belarussian government also banned poultry and dairy exports after Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko demanded the government work strenuously to keep food inflation at bay.

Russia is braced for turbulence

In 2023, Belarus plans to manufacture 701,000 tonnes of broiler meat, local agricultural consultancy ROSNG said. Belarus is the largest poultry exporter to Russia, delivering roughly 10,000 tonnes per month.

Kommersant sources assumed that the lack of Belarussian broiler meat could fuel a rise in prices on the Russian market. Since December 2022, the broiler meat market saw an 11% price rise, the Russian state statistical service Rosstat estimated. In light of this, some sausage manufacturers have started partially replacing chicken in their recipes with pork, as occasionally it is cheaper.

Koryagina expressed confidence that the price rise in the Russian broiler meat market is associated with a slump in the Russian ruble’s exchange rate. Over the past year, it has lost nearly 45% of its value against the hard currency.

Bird flu claims 11 million chickens in Russia

Other sources told Kommersant that Russia sees a price hike due to its own bird flu outbreaks. Since March 2023, Russia lost 11 million heads of chicken due to avian influenza and had to restrict imports from Kazakhstan.