Brazil projects a production of 14.5 million tonnes of chicken meat in 2021, 5.5% more than its previous record, reached last year.
The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) forecast estimates a domestic per capita consumption of 47 kilos, up 4.4% from in 2020 (45 kilos), but on the export front, no numbers are stated. However, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in Brazilian exports compared 2020. Last year, Brazil exported 4,23 million tonnes of chicken meat.
The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at the University of São Paulo (USP) explains that although China is increasing its own chicken production, Brazilian exports to China are predicted to grow in 2021. Besides that, other countries are expected to increase their demand, such as Japan, Brazil’s third biggest commercial partner in this segment. However, it is expected that if the Covid-19 pandemic becomes worse throughout the year, the Japan Olympic Games could be cancelled, decreasing demands. That said, Brazilian chicken is exported to more than 160 countries, spreading risks.
According to Central Bank´s Focus Report, the Brazilian economy could grow by 3.4% in 2021. Despite this, the high unemployment rate, and the end of “emergency aid” handed out by the federal government may have a negative effect on family income, primarily in the regions with high poverty rates. This scenario may favour chicken meat and especially egg sales due to lower prices of protein in comparison to other protein. “A possible Covid-19 vaccination may allow people to return for social events, which could also boost consumption,” Cepea researchers say. ABPA estimates that in 2021, Brazilian egg production may increase by 5% compared to 2020, going to 56.2 billion eggs. Consumption is expected to reach 265 eggs per capita during the year, 6% more than forecast for 2020.