Broiler production in Brazil is to rebound by 3% in 2014 to 13.1 million metric tons as a result of lower feed costs and higher exports due to the depreciation of the Brazilian currency, a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service states.
The only constraint affecting next year’s forecast is the slowdown in the growth path of domestic consumption due to the high level of indebtedness of Brazilian consumers and higher competition from beef and pork. The outlook for turkey production and exports is for moderate growth next year.
For 2013 broiler production, the forecast has been revised to 12.7 million metric tons, a drop of nearly 2% from the forecast at the beginning of the year, reflecting the problems faced by Brazilian producers with high feed costs during the first quarter of the year and their decision to cut production by 5 to 10%.
The cost of broiler production in 2013 is estimated to drop by 15% from last year’s level, while producer price will likely recover around 12% during the same period. If materialised, these prices will contribute to improve profit margins next year. These reference prices are for Parana state, the largest broiler producer in Brazil with a market share of nearly 28% of total broiler slaughter.
Broiler exports are forecast to increase by 5% in 2014. The growth in exports is likely to be driven by a devaluation of the Brazilian currency and higher sales of whole broilers, in general and chicken parts to China and Hong Kong, in particular. Exports to new markets such as Mexico (Brazilian and Mexican officials recently completed a sanitary agreement enabling exports) are likely to begin during second half of 2013. Trade sources also expect greater broiler exports to the European Union, Egypt, Nigeria and Iraq.
Brazilian exporters remain concerned with specific trade issues with major trading partners such as the Russian Federation (slow relisting of Brazilian poultry plants), Venezuela (payment defaults) and South Africa (application of antidumping tariffs of 62.92% on whole broilers and 46.59% on chicken parts) that continue to negatively affect performance. Brazilian exporters are also in the final stage of preparing support data for Brazilian officials to open a panel in the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Indonesia, which is resisting in opening their market for Brazilian broilers.
During Jan-Jul 2013 total broiler exports reached 2.2 million metric tons, 3% lower than the same period in 2012. However, the value of broiler exports reached a record of US$ 4.5 billion, up 9.5% and a record for the period. The average export price increased by 13%, as compared to the same period last year and reached US$ 2,110 per metric ton.
Major export markets for Brazilian broilers in 2013 remain the same as last year: Saudi Arabia, Japan and the European Union (UE-28).
Source: US GAIN report