UK poultry outlook for 2024 mixed

Layer chick placings have once again rocketed upwards, which will begin to increase supply in early 2024. With demand remaining suppressed, this can only mean prices heading in one direction, says consultants Victoria Moxham and Edward Calcott.

Latest government figures show that in October 2023, commercial layer chick placings were up 23% at 4.2 million compared to October 2022, while UK broiler chicks were up 0.2% at 111.3 million.

“As we have historically learnt, less production is often almost certainly more profit and cash for the poultry industry and greater collaboration and communication is required between producers and processors to ensure supply and demand remain in balance,” they said in the annual report.

Challenges and solutions for the poultry sector

The report highlighted that the sector faces 6 ongoing issues and some of the possible solutions:

• Avian influenza: Practise the best biosecurity and restrict visitors to the site and limit access to the shed; have a good perimeter fence with a locked gate; encourage showering on site and provide PPE for visitors; practise good vermin control, and carry out external audits.
• Energy price inflation: Shop around for suppliers if you can and assess the payback from energy-saving items such as solar panels and heat exchangers before installing.
• Threat of imports: Liaise with poultry lobby groups and MPs to influence policy.
• Planning: For new sites, appoint an experienced planning agent and obtain pre-planning advice from the local authority. Prepare a very thorough application and highlight any ammonia-reducing infrastructure you will install. Think carefully about site location.
• Labour issues: Promote flexible working within the day and encourage time off during quieter periods.
• Raising interest rates and lack of profitability/returns: Be proactive and forward budget to see if there will be cashflow pinch points so you can manage and address them with your lender in advance. Challenge your suppliers, contractors and your customers, packers and integrators on quality of service, support and price. Ensure you get quality feedback on birds and eggs. Think about the longer-term strategy.

The poultry sector is also likely to be affected as the year seems likely to be the one when the reality of post-CAP farm support hits many farms. For arable farmers, Basic Payment Scheme payments will be down to at least half of their historic levels – more for larger farms. The offer under Environmental Land Management will be further developed, but farmers will have to do more to access funding than under area payments.