It is very quiet on the grain market. The animal feed industry is quiet with its purchasing. Everyone is a bit surprised about how much Ukrainian grain is coming this way via the Danube. It is expected that some of the Ukrainian grain transit will remain stuck.
Milling wheat on the Paris futures market sells for around €235 per tonne. The bidding on the physical market is far below that. Earlier this week, feed wheat was quoted as stable at €208 per tonne on the Groningen (the Netherlands) grain exchange.
Figures from the European Commission show that the import of Ukrainian wheat is increasing significantly. This season, the EU has imported almost 1 million tonnes of Ukrainian wheat. In comparison to last year, when the EU imported 334,500 tonnes of Ukrainian wheat in the period from 1 July to 18 September 2022.
Exports of European wheat are slow. The European Union exported 6.3 million tonnes of soft wheat this marketing season (1 July to 17 September). That is 27% less than a year earlier in the same period. At that time, 8.7 million tonnes of European wheat had been sold. Barley exports are also 11% behind last season at 1.9 million tonnes.
Moderate EU exports are partly because Russia is very competitive on the world market. Russia has good harvest yields and offers grain at competitive prices.
The latest Wasde report from the US Department of Agriculture showed that the wheat balance has tightened. The report provides monthly forecasts for supply, use and sales of grains and oilseeds, among other products, from the US and the world.
Due to the tighter balance sheet, wheat prices rose on the international futures markets last week. Australia, Canada, Europe and Argentina expect smaller wheat harvests.
The global balance for corn has actually become wider. The American corn acreage has grown, causing corn prices on the Chicago futures market to fall further. Furthermore, the export of American corn is somewhat disappointing, because China mainly imports corn from Brazil.