USDA: Brazil will remain top poultry exporter next decade

Brazil may account for 32.5% of global poultry export growth over the next decade. Photo: Henk Riswick
Brazil may account for 32.5% of global poultry export growth over the next decade. Photo: Henk Riswick

According to the USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2031 report released on 1 February, Brazil will remain the world’s largest chicken exporter for the next 10 years.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Brazil may account for 32.5% of global export growth over the next decade, with shipments rising 19.6% to 5.2 million tonnes by 2031.

During the same time, US chicken exports could increase 13.9% to 4.3 million tonnes next decade. The EU is expected to grow poultry foreign trade by 15.9% to almost 2.9 million tonnes, while Thailand, favoured by its geographical location, should up by 31.7% to 1.4 million tons in the interim.

Global consumption up 16.7%

As a whole, global chicken consumption will grow by 16.7% through 2031. Projected demand growth for all meats is highest among developing regions such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.

The report shows that poultry meat has the highest growth in production and consumption compared to beef and pork. This is because poultry production has shown stronger growth in low and middle-income countries (20.8%) than in richer countries (8.5%).

Rising markets

Annual poultry meat imports might increase 2.6 million tonnes (20.3%), reaching 15.8 million tonnes in 2031. Larger growth will be concentrated at emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, Taiwan and Canada are projected to show a much slower pace of growth.

Poultry imports in Africa and the Middle East regions are expected to grow by 22.3% and 16.8%, respectively. By 2031, these regions combined will increase their poultry meat imports by 1 million tonnes.

In Mexico, despite production increasing, imports may rise faster. As a result, Mexico’s poultry meat imports will grow about 17.6% to nearly 1.3 million tonnes between 2023 and 2031. Poultry imports Central America and the Caribbean region could jump up 26.6% to 1.1 million tonnes by 2031.

China a major poultry importer

The USDA points out that China is going to be a major importer of poultry, as consumption outpaces domestic production growth. China’s poultry imports will soar by 30.9%, reaching more than 1.2 million tonnes next decade.

With China’s poultry exports projected to reach a high of 23.4%, to 571,000 tonnes, net imports increase 40% to 218,000 tonnes, according to the projections.

Daniel Azevedo Freelance journalist Brazil