Russia: Poultry industry growth pace predicted to slow
Over the course of the next three years, the volume of Russian domestic poultry production could increase by 20% to 3.2 million tons, which is a significant slowdown in growth relative to 2007-2010, when the industry showed growth rates of nearly 50%. Consumption of poultry meat will also grow relatively slowly, and in 2014 will exceed the rate of 2011 by 13% (from 24.6 kg to 27.7 kg per capita).
The increase in market size and rise of consumption of poultry meat is currently constrained by the low level of the average Russian’s domestic income.
Experts also stated that the reduction of import quotas on chicken meat and the increase in domestic production caused a marked intensification of competition between the leading Russian poultry production companies, which will also be one of the main contributing factors to the slowing down of Russia’s poultry industry growth in the coming years.
As a result, the market situation may substantially leading up to 2015.
According to some forecasts the proportion of large manufacturers, which currently dominates some 30-40% of the volume of the total market share could increase to 75% by 2015.
This trend will be aided by Russia’s accession to the WTO, which will decrease its investment attractiveness.
Nevertheless, experts predict this year’s imports will reach 400 thousand tons of poultry meat, which is 17% down from 2011 levels.
Under the new projections for the development of poultry industry, it is forecast that Russia will reach self-sufficient poultry production in 2015.
Under the Rosptitsesoyuz program, Russian poultry farmers intend to increase production capacity to 4.5 million ton by 2020. But if the rate of growth of the industry will continue to slow down after 2015 has passed, then this plan can become untenable.
Source: Vladislav Vorotnikov