The recent USDA Poultry and Livestock Report previews Brazil and Turkey will attend to the needs of Ukraine’s poultry clients in 2022.
The document says global production and export forecasts are virtually unchanged in 2022 at 100.1 million tonnes and 13.4 million tonnes, respectively.
Despite that, there are some relevant changes in the international poultry sector. For most countries, higher feed prices are expected to stymie expansion despite forecasted economic recovery buoying modest demand growth.
Nonetheless, Brazil will increase production substantially to backfill global demand vacated as Ukraine meat exports cease, achieving almost 35% of the entire world poultry international trade.
Consequently, the USDA elevated the forecast for Brazilian poultry production in 2022 from 14.75 million tonnes to 14.85 million tonnes. In 2021, the country produced 14.5 million tonnes.
Similarly, Turkish production expansion will attend to regional demand. Turkey might therefore increase its results from 2.246 million tonnes in 2021 to 2.39 this year. The country will cover about 5% of global poultry exports.
Russia increases production to the domestic market
Russia’s production will grow on increased availability of feed grains, from 4.6 million tonnes to 4.8 million tonnes, but product will be directed to the domestic market.
China production is forecast lower as pork production continues to rebound and yellow feather broiler production declines due to consumers shifting to online and modern retail channels. The Asian country may produce 14.3 million tonnes against 14.7 million tonnes last year.
Imports by Ukraine, Russia, and Saudi Arabia will decline while modest growth is expected for Iraq, Cuba, the United Kingdom, and Mexico.
Slight production increase in the US despite bird flu
US production is forecast 1% higher in 2022 as relatively high feed grain prices pressure producer returns and elevated retail prices moderate consumer demand. Exports are unchanged at 3.3 million tonnes.
While the US faces restrictions by trading partners due to the current highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, these restrictions are generally limited in geographic scope at a zone, county, or state-level rather than national, thus the impact on shipments to date has been limited.